Key Updates
BRK-B has rebounded 2.93% since the August 17 report, rising from $501.13 to $515.81, effectively reversing most of the post-earnings decline documented in the prior two reports. The recovery coincides with a cluster of constructive news flow, most notably a Barron's/CNBC valuation showing Precision Castparts is now worth approximately $100 billion — nearly triple its $37.2 billion 2016 purchase price — and continued confirmation of Berkshire's Q2 capital deployment (Alphabet stake, Taylor Morrison acquisition, $4.5 billion buyback). Despite this bounce, the stock remains up only 2.62% YTD and, per CNBC's September 12 update, still trails the S&P 500 by over 10 percentage points year-to-date, underscoring that the rally has narrowed but not closed the performance gap versus the broader market.
Current Trend
YTD performance stands at +2.62%, with a 6-month gain of +5.26%, a 1-month gain of +2.34%, and a 5-day gain of +1.93% — indicating a firming short-term uptrend following the August pullback. The stock has recovered from the August 17 low of $501.13 and the August 29 close of $505.00, and is now approaching the $517 level, which previously served as technical support before being breached in mid-August and now represents the first resistance zone. A sustained break above $517 would open the path toward the post-Q2-earnings high of $537.22 referenced in the prior report. Support is now established in the $501–$505 range formed during the August correction.
Investment Thesis
The core thesis remains centered on Berkshire's diversified operating portfolio, disciplined capital allocation, and substantial liquidity optionality. Recent developments reinforce this: the Precision Castparts revaluation demonstrates the long-term value-creation potential of Berkshire's industrial holdings, while the Q2 13F data confirms a shift to net equity buying after a 14-quarter selling streak, including a $36.6–$37.8 billion Alphabet stake and the $6.8 billion Taylor Morrison acquisition. However, the thesis is tempered by persistent concerns over the pace of cash deployment relative to the $365.5 billion cash pile, absence of a dividend, and market uncertainty surrounding CEO Greg Abel's strategic direction following Warren Buffett's step-back from the CEO role.
Thesis Status
The thesis is partially validated by recent developments. The Precision Castparts revaluation and the confirmed pivot to net buying (Alphabet, Delta, Lennar, Taylor Morrison) support the view that Berkshire's capital allocation engine remains intact and capable of generating outsized returns over time. However, the stock's continued underperformance versus the S&P 500 — over 10 percentage points YTD as of the September 12 report — indicates the market has not yet fully re-rated Berkshire's holdings or rewarded the increased deployment activity. The thesis therefore stands as "cautiously intact but unconfirmed," with the recent price recovery representing a positive but early signal rather than a definitive re-rating.
Key Drivers
Recent price action has been shaped by: the Precision Castparts valuation upgrade tied to AI-data-center-driven demand for turbine components (CNBC); confirmation of Berkshire's Q2 shift to net equity buying, including the $36.6 billion Alphabet stake (Forbes); the $6.8 billion Taylor Morrison acquisition and $10 billion AI-related commitment to Alphabet (Fortune); ongoing investor scrutiny of the $365.5 billion cash position and CEO transition dynamics under Greg Abel (CNBC); and the Gates Foundation's reduction of its BRK-B position (Fortune).
Technical Analysis
BRK-B is trading at $515.81, up across all measured timeframes from 1-day (+1.07%) through 6-month (+5.26%), signaling renewed short-term momentum. The stock has recovered from the August correction lows of $501–$505 and is now testing the $517 level, a former support zone that turned into resistance after the mid-August breakdown. A confirmed close above $517 would be a bullish technical signal targeting the $537.22 post-earnings high; failure to clear this level could see the stock consolidate within the $501–$517 range. Despite the recent bounce, the modest 2.62% YTD gain relative to the S&P 500's stronger performance keeps the broader technical picture range-bound rather than trending.
Bull Case
- Precision Castparts is now estimated to be worth approximately $100 billion, nearly three times Berkshire's $37.2 billion purchase price, driven by AI-data-center-related demand for turbine components — a strong indicator of hidden value within the industrial portfolio (CNBC)
- Berkshire ended a 14-quarter equity selling streak, becoming a net buyer of $19.8 billion in Q2, including a $36.6 billion Alphabet stake — signaling renewed conviction in deploying capital (Forbes)
- Active capital deployment continues under CEO Abel, including the $6.8 billion Taylor Morrison acquisition and a $10 billion AI-linked commitment to Alphabet, demonstrating willingness to put cash to work (Fortune)
- Berkshire repurchased $4.5 billion of its own shares in Q2, reflecting management's confidence in intrinsic value and providing a buyback-driven price floor (CNBC)
- Warren Buffett remains actively engaged as chairman at 96, providing continuity in investment philosophy and oversight during the leadership transition (CNBC)
Bear Case
- Berkshire's Class B shares continue to underperform the S&P 500 by over 10 percentage points YTD despite the recent bounce, reflecting persistent investor skepticism (CNBC)
- The company still holds a $365.5 billion cash pile, and investors remain concerned about the pace and scale of capital deployment relative to Berkshire's size (CNBC)
- Absence of dividend payments continues to be cited as a structural drag on investor demand for the stock (CNBC)
- Ongoing investor uncertainty surrounding new CEO Greg Abel's strategic direction and ability to replicate Buffett's historical capital allocation success (CNBC)
- The Gates Foundation reduced its Berkshire Class B position by nearly 2.4 million shares, signaling diminished conviction from a major long-term institutional holder (Fortune)