FNDX closed at $32.31 on November 5, 2026, down 2.7% in a broad market selloff that hit the S&P 500 for 3.5% and the Nasdaq for 5.2%. The fund held its 40-week average and outperformed SPY by roughly 2 percentage points over five days, confirming that the move was sector-driven rather than a rejection of the long-term thesis. A pullback inside a weekly uptrend that has reached oversold territory keeps the balance of evidence leaning positive over the next two to six weeks, though the math on a breakout does not reach the 3-to-1 threshold that would make it compelling.
Why it matters
Semiconductor stocks led the decline on November 5, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index falling 8.05% to 9,442 — outpacing the broader market by a wide margin, according to PR Newswire. Qualcomm dropped 10.1% after missing fourth-quarter sales estimates due to sluggish smartphone demand, dragging down peers including Intel and Marvell, Reuters reported. The VIX spiked to above 28, its highest since March 31, with an intraday swing of more than 11 points — the largest single-day move since April, CNBC noted. The iShares Semiconductor ETF has now fallen more than 23% over the past month, CNBC reported, as investors rotate out of AI-linked names.
FNDX's five-day loss of 1.8% compares favorably to SPY's 3.8% decline over the same span, and the fund has gained 18.7% year-to-date against the S&P 500's 8.6% — a meaningful divergence that reflects the fundamental weighting approach favoring value-oriented large-caps over the mega-cap tech concentration in the cap-weighted index. The fund led SPY by 3.4% over 50 days heading into this pullback, suggesting that whatever pressure it felt was largely a reflection of sector rotation rather than idiosyncratic weakness in its own holdings.
The debate on the broader market splits on election implications. Forbes highlighted the Dow's 1,669-point surge following the midterm results, with prediction markets showing 97-99% accuracy on outcomes. Bloomberg, however, cautioned that post-midterm gains have historically been weakest when a Democratic sweep produces divided government, and warned of potential earnings slowdown. UBS traders described the post-vote setup as "combustible" for a year-end rebound, citing favorable seasonality and low hedge fund positioning. Ned Davis Research flagged a rare valuation signal — the forward P/E ratio dropping 4.4 points to 18.8x, its steepest decline since 1983 — that preceded recessions or echo bear markets in five of six prior instances, Business Insider reported.
What the evidence says
The long-term thesis remains intact. FNDX trades above its 40-week moving average of $30.64, and the recent peak of $33.19 on November 4 was a 52-week high — the fund is in an established uptrend on the weekly chart. Year-to-date strength of nearly 19% against a market up 8.6% reflects the fundamental weighting's benefit from the style rotation that has favored value and away from the concentrated mega-cap tech names that dominate cap-weighted benchmarks. The thesis is not broken; it is being tested by a sector-driven pullback.
Over the next two to six weeks, the balance of evidence leans positive with medium conviction — two of four reasons met. A pullback inside the weekly uptrend has reached oversold territory, with the 14-day RSI at 46.15 and the price sitting just below its 50-day average of $32.33. The fund has led SPY by 3.4% over 50 days and by 4% over 200 days, demonstrating relative strength that did not evaporate in Thursday's selloff. The strongest case against this reading is that the semiconductor sector's pain could broaden — the SOX fell 8% in a single session and the rotation out of tech is described as a risk for the broader market, per CNBC. That does not tip the balance because FNDX's fundamental weighting reduces exposure to the mega-cap tech concentration that has driven both the AI rally and the current rotation, and the fund's five-day outperformance of SPY by roughly 2 percentage points shows it absorbing sector noise without breaking its relative trend.
Levels that matter
The structure holds above $31.37, a swing zone that has acted as support since the October 16 report. Below that, $30.72 is the level where the weekly trend would end — a weekly close beneath that zone would mark a structural failure of the uptrend and shift the longer-term picture. The 52-week low of $25.89 sits well below, representing the outer boundary of the past year's range. On the upside, $32.31 is the swing zone that defines the current pullback boundary; a daily close above that level on volume exceeding the 20-day average would constitute a breakout. The math from that level gives a target of $32.83, a swing zone, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.5 — and a second target at $33.19, the 52-week high, with a ratio of 0.9. The stop sits at $31.30, derived from the $31.37 swing zone minus a quarter of the 14-day ATR of $0.30. The math does not reach the 3-to-1 threshold that would make a breakout compelling; a move above $33.19 and toward $35 would be the level that changes the reward-to-risk calculus.
What would change the picture
A weekly close below $30.72 would change the picture — that is the swing zone where the weekly uptrend would end, and a breach would signal that the pullback has become something more than a rotation-driven test of the long-term thesis. The non-price fact that would most shift the reading is a sustained break in semiconductor earnings: if the sector's pain proves to be not just a rotation but a fundamental demand concern, the value tilt in FNDX's fundamental weighting would face a different test than the style-driven headwinds it has navigated this year.
What to watch
- Semiconductor earnings season — AMD, Arm, and ON Semiconductor reported strong results alongside Qualcomm's miss, per PR Newswire; further reports from the sector will test whether the pullback is a correction or a turning point
- The S&P 500's critical support at 7,500 — Morningstar flagged this as the level where a break could trigger a drop to 7,237-7,313
- The VIX at 28 — elevated volatility has been the backdrop for this rotation; a sustained spike above 30 would suggest the macro fear is dominating the sector story
- FNDX's volume relative to its 20-day average — Thursday's session saw volume 8.2% below average; a sharp volume spike on a move through $32.31 would confirm buyer intent