Iron Mountain (IRM) fell sharply this week after its Q3 earnings report, despite beating on EPS, because revenue guidance for Q4 came in below forecasts. The stock is now down 9.1% over five days, underperforming the S&P 500's 2.4% decline, and has broken below key support. The weekly trend has turned down, and the balance of evidence for the next 2–6 weeks is negative, though conviction is only medium because the stock is near a round support level and the long-term uptrend from its 52-week low is still intact.
Why it matters
Iron Mountain reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.64, beating the $0.61 consensus, while revenue rose 13.5% year over year to $2.0 billion, in line with expectations. Adjusted EBITDA hit a quarterly record of $748 million, up 13.3%, and AFFO increased 17% to $458 million. However, the company guided Q4 revenue to approximately $2.0 billion, below what analysts had modeled, and the market punished the stock for it. The 10-Q filing confirms the strong operating performance, but the guidance miss is what moved the stock.
The reaction tells you what was already priced in: the market had high expectations for growth, and the stock had run up 27.7% year-to-date before this week. The 5-day drop of 9.1% is almost four times the S&P 500's 2.4% decline, and the stock is now lagging the index by 3.2% over 50 days. This is not a market-wide selloff; it is a stock-specific repricing after the guidance disappointment.
The debate around IRM is about whether the data-center growth story is intact. On one side, the company's record EBITDA and AFFO, plus the 13% revenue growth, suggest the thesis is working. On the other, the Q4 guidance miss raises questions about whether growth is slowing, and the broader market is worried about a potential data-center construction moratorium, as Seeking Alpha discusses. The used and refurbished data center GPU market is projected to grow at an 18% CAGR to $21.54 billion by 2036, per GlobeNewswire, which supports the long-term demand story, but the near-term guidance is what matters now.
Valuation: analysts have a consensus buy rating with a mean target of $144, which is 26.5% above the current price of $105.90. The low target is $132, still well above the current price, suggesting that even the bears see upside. But the market is not listening to the targets right now; it is focused on the guidance miss and the technical breakdown.
What the evidence says
The long-term trend is down: the stock is below its 40-week average, and the weekly trend is now aligned with the daily downtrend. The stock is 20.4% below its 52-week high of $133.06, but still 34.3% above its 52-week low of $78.86. The thesis is not broken—the company is growing and profitable—but the stock is in a corrective phase after a strong run. The 50-day average at $113.74 and the 200-day average at $115.71 are both above the price, confirming the downtrend.
For the next 2–6 weeks, the balance of evidence leans negative. The daily trend runs with the weekly downtrend, and the stock is lagging the S&P 500. The conviction is medium, 2 of 4, because the stock is near a round support level at $100, and the RSI at 42.28 is not oversold, leaving room for further downside. The strongest case against the bearish reading is that the stock is only 5.9% above the $100 round number, which could act as a magnet for buyers, and the analyst targets suggest the downside is limited. But the guidance miss is a fresh negative catalyst, and the stock has broken below the swing zone at $109.42, which now becomes resistance. That is why conviction is not higher.
Levels that matter
The structure holds below $109.42, the swing zone where sellers have shown up on rallies. The weekly trend is down, and as long as the stock stays below that level, the path of least resistance is lower. The trend would end on a weekly close above $113.74, the 50-day average, which is the level that would signal buyers are back in control.
The breakout level is a daily close below $100.00, a round number. From there, the first target is $96.71, a swing zone, which gives a reward-to-risk of 0.3 against a stop at $110.52 (the swing zone plus a quarter of the ATR). The second target is $82.08, another swing zone, which gives a reward-to-risk of 1.7. Neither reaches the 3-to-1 threshold that would make a breakout worth the risk. To get to 3-to-1, the stock would need to be closer to the stop or have a lower target; as it stands, the math does not favor a fresh short from here.
What would change the picture
A weekly close above $113.74, the 50-day average, would flip the picture back to neutral or positive. That is the level to watch. The non-price fact that would change the picture is a positive pre-announcement or a strong Q4 update from management that reassures the market about revenue growth, but that is not on the calendar until the next earnings report.
What to watch
- The next earnings date is November 5, 2026 (already passed); the next report will be for Q4, and the key number will be revenue guidance for Q1 2027.
- Watch for any news on data-center construction moratoriums or regulatory changes, which could hit the sector broadly.
- Valuation: the stock trades 26.5% below the mean analyst target of $144, but the market is ignoring that until the guidance issue is resolved.