Key Updates
Mondelez International shares continued their correction, falling 2.29% to $57.71 after the Q3 2025 results were released. Even though Europe and emerging markets posted strong performance, the company faces margin pressure and weakening chocolate demand, which is reflected in falling cocoa prices.
Current Trend
MDLZ is on a steady downtrend, down 15.29% over the past six months. Short-term pressure has intensified: –5.41% over the last five days and –7.62% over the past month. The current price of $57.71 reflects an ongoing pullback after the volatility surrounding the Q3 results.
Investment Thesis
The investment case for MDLZ rests on its diversified snack portfolio with strong positions in emerging markets. The company shows resilient growth in key regions despite supply-chain challenges and pricing pressure.
Thesis Status
The thesis is partially validated by robust growth in Europe and emerging markets, but it is weakened by signs of declining chocolate demand and operational issues. Falling cocoa prices could improve margins in the medium term, but they also signal current demand weakness.
Key Drivers
Key influences remain strong results in Europe and emerging markets despite ongoing supply-chain problems. Additional pressure comes from lower cocoa prices amid weak chocolate demand, which may hurt short-term revenue.
Technical Picture
The stock is in a downtrend, forming a series of lower highs. The current price of $57.71 is approaching critical support levels. Trading volume remains moderate, indicating a lack of active buying interest at these levels.
Bull Case
- Strong growth momentum in Europe and emerging markets according to the Q3 2025 results
- Falling cocoa prices could boost product margins in the medium term, per Barchart
- Diversified snack brand portfolio supports business model resilience
- Current valuation may offer an attractive entry point after a 15.29% correction
- Potential recovery in chocolate demand over the long term
Bear Case
- Weak chocolate demand reflected in lower cocoa prices
- Ongoing supply-chain issues highlighted in the Q3 report
- Negative technical momentum with a 15.29% decline over six months
- Pricing pressure could limit revenue growth
- Lack of catalysts for a short-term price rebound