Newmont Corporation (NEM) fell 1.65% to $107.29 on November 3, 2026. That leaves the stock 9.5% below its October 16 close of $118.60, even though the third quarter showed revenue up 15% and net income up 35%. The price is under its 40-week average, and the daily trend runs with the weekly downtrend. The balance of evidence leans negative for the next 2–6 weeks, with medium conviction.
Why it matters
On October 22, 2026, NEM filed its quarterly report showing revenue of $6.36 billion and net income of $2.48 billion (SEC EDGAR). The operating detail came in the same-day results release: about 1.3 million attributable gold ounces, 11 million ounces of silver and 23 thousand tonnes of copper, at gold by-product costs applicable to sales of $832 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs of $1,454 per ounce (SEC EDGAR). On the numbers alone, this was a strong report.
The market's reaction says the good news was already in the price. The stock peaked on October 16, six days before the report, and has drifted lower since. It is down 7.23% over the past month. A quarter with profit up by about a third did not stop that slide, so the results were evidently expected and did not give buyers a new reason to step in.
Over the last five days NEM is down 4.82% while SPY is down 2.06%. The market explains part of the drop, but the stock fell by more than twice as much. Today the gap is clearer: SPY rose 0.23% while NEM lost 1.65%. Over 50 days the stock trails the S&P 500 by 8.8%, and over 200 days by 7.9%. The feed has no sector ETF figure, so that comparison cannot be made. No news in the evidence explains the latest leg down. The filings contain nothing that would, and gold, the main swing factor for a producer like this, is not covered in the material here.
The debate set holds no articles, so there is no sourced bull-and-bear argument to cite. The analyst spread shows how far apart the opinions are. Of 21 analysts, the consensus is buy, with a mean price target of $135.46, a high of $165 and a low of $70. The shares trade 20.8% below that mean. A gap that wide says analysts expect much higher prices, but the market is not paying for it now, and the $70 low shows that not everyone agrees.
What the evidence says
The long-term thesis is weakened, not broken. The stock is below its 40-week average and below its 200-day average of $112.38, and the 50-day average at $119.70 sits well above the price. It is 20.61% under its 52-week high of $135.14 but still 35.98% above the low of $78.90, and it is up 7.37% year to date. That fits a correction inside a larger advance that has lost its footing, not a collapse. The longer trend has turned down, and it needs repair before the earlier uptrend can be called intact.
For the next 2–6 weeks, the balance of evidence leans negative. Conviction is medium, 2 of 4 points. Two things support the reading: the daily trend runs with the weekly downtrend, and the stock keeps lagging the S&P 500. Both say rallies have met sellers and the market has not rewarded the stock.
The strongest case against that reading is that the selling does not look forceful. The 14-day RSI is 43.75, not oversold but not stretched. Volume is 58.6% below its 20-day average, so the decline has come on thin trading. The earnings were strong, and analysts see the shares far below their targets. These points are why conviction is medium and not higher. They do not tip the balance, because the price is below its key averages and has not yet produced a close that shows buyers returning.
Levels that matter
Because the weekly trend is down, the structure holds below $112.06, where sellers have shown up on earlier rallies. The 200-day average at $112.38 sits just above it, which adds weight to that area. The trend would end above $119.70, the 50-day average, on a weekly close. Beyond it the next resistance is $120.95, then $125.
The breakout level is a daily close below $106.60, and the price is just above it. From there the first target is $103.88, which gives 0.4 to 1 against a stop at $113.06 (the $112.06 level plus a quarter of the $4.00 daily range). The second target is $97.60, which gives 1.4 to 1. The math does not reach the 3 to 1 that makes a breakout worth the risk. That would take a target well below the supports on this map or a stop much closer to the breakout level. The round $100 level sits between the two targets as a further reference point.
What would change the picture
A weekly close above $119.70, the 50-day average, would change the picture, because it would put the price back over the level that has capped the recent rally. The non-price fact that would do it is evidence that operations are improving, such as a quarterly report with all-in sustaining costs below the $1,454 per ounce just reported while output holds near 1.3 million gold ounces. That kind of result would give buyers a reason that the October report did not.
What to watch
- Earnings: the October 22, 2026 date in the data is the report already delivered, and the next date is not in the evidence. The number that matters is all-in sustaining costs per ounce against the $1,454 reported.
- Sector: gold price moves tend to reach a producer's shares before company news does. No sector figures are in the evidence here, so any large move in gold would be new information.
- Valuation: the shares are 20.8% below the $135.46 mean target, with targets from $70 to $165. The gap closes only if the price recovers, and the first test is $112.06.