The iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF) fell 1.5% to $375.39 in Friday's session on October 30, 2026, as disappointing results from Alphabet, Amazon and Intel hit the AI-linked mega-caps. The basket now sits 3.6% below its October 7 peak of $389.44 but still above its 40-week average. The balance of evidence leans positive, with low conviction: an oversold pullback inside an uptrend, while the fund lags the S&P 500.
Why it matters
The week's earnings hit the heaviest names in the index. Fortune reported that Alphabet's Class A shares fell 12.6% on October 29, its worst day since trading began, which took the S&P 500 down 0.3% to 7,720.39 and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.4%. Microsoft offered a counterweight, rising 3% after hours on a beat, according to CNBC. On Friday, Barron's said Amazon was down 6.5% premarket on weak retail results despite solid cloud figures, and Intel was down 26% on soft sales and tepid guidance.
The market was not treating this as one company's problem. OEF fell 1.46% on the day against 1.23% for SPY, a sign that selling concentrated in the largest holdings, which carry the most weight in a basket of 100 names. The New York Times described a month in which several AI-linked stocks fell by double digits on worries about debt-fueled AI spending and high valuations. The broader market held up because of energy, utilities and consumer staples, which are sectors a mega-cap basket owns in smaller measure.
The five-day numbers show where the lag comes from. OEF is down 0.5% over five days while SPY is flat at +0.02%, so the gap is the fund's own and not the market's. No sector fund is available as a comparison. Over a month OEF is down 1.75% against 0.33% for SPY, and year to date it is up 9.5% against 11.5%. Against SPY, OEF trails by 0.8% over 50 days and by 0.1% over 200 days, so the relative weakness is recent and small.
The argument over the basket runs through its biggest holdings. On the cautious side, the CNBC Investing Club cut Alphabet to a rating of 2 and trimmed its price target to $350 from $400, while keeping the position for the momentum in cloud. On the other side, the market has absorbed the AI sell-off without a broad break, and Microsoft's cloud-driven beat shows demand has not vanished. A fund has no earnings or analyst target of its own, so there is no valuation spread to measure, and the news mentions no fund flows. What is visible is a theme under pressure and a market that has not followed it down.
What the evidence says
The long-term thesis is intact but in a pullback phase. Price is above its 40-week average and well above the 200-day average at $360.36. It is below the 10-week average and below the 50-day average at $382.08. The fund is up 5.8% over six months and sits 21.8% above its 52-week low of $308.21. The drop from the October 7 peak is a correction inside a rising trend, not a trend break.
For the next two to six weeks, the balance of evidence leans positive, but conviction is low, at 1 of 4. The one point in favor is that a pullback inside the weekly uptrend has pushed the 14-day RSI to 32.13, which is oversold. Oversold readings inside uptrends have tended to be where selling runs out, though nothing has confirmed that yet.
The strongest case against is that price is under both the 10-week and the 50-day averages, the fund trails the S&P 500 over 50 days, and the leaders of the theme, Alphabet and Amazon, have just reported weak quarters, with Intel's plunge adding to the pressure. Volume of 78.6% below the 20-day average argues against reading too much into a partial session in either direction. This case does not tip the balance because the 40-week trend holds and the nearest support is within reach. It is the reason conviction is low and not higher.
Levels that matter
The structure holds above $375.00, a round number that price is sitting on now; a close below it would be the first crack. The weekly trend ends below $356.44, a prior swing zone just under the 200-day average at $360.36. A weekly close below $356.44 would put the 40-week trend in question, with $350.00 the next round-number support.
The breakout level is a daily close above $379.22 on volume above the 20-day average. From there the first target is the 50-day average at $382.08, which is 0.5 to 1 against a stop at $373.95. That stop is $375.00 minus a quarter of the 14-day average true range of $4.21. The second target is the swing zone at $385.70, at 1.2 to 1. The math does not reach the 3 to 1 that makes a breakout worth the risk. Only a path toward the $389.44 52-week high and the $400.00 round number would stretch the reward far enough, and both sit beyond the nearest resistance.
What would change the picture
A weekly close below $356.44 would change the picture and mark the end of the uptrend. The non-price fact that would most likely cause it is the AI-spending worry spreading from Alphabet and Amazon to the other mega-cap holdings, through a cut to spending plans or weak guidance. Microsoft's beat shows that outcome is not the default.
What to watch
- November 4, 2026: the U.S. midterm elections. CNBC cites Man Group saying S&P 500 options price about 1.2 times a typical day's volatility, and a contested count could unsettle markets.
- Further mega-cap earnings and guidance on AI spending, the main driver of the basket's weakness this week.
- A daily close above $379.22 on above-average volume, the first sign that buyers are back.
- The $375.00 floor, then the $356.44 weekly-close line.
- The S&P 500's October 29 close of 7,720.39 as a market-side marker; a slide through it with AI names still leading lower would show the market following the theme down.
- Fund flows and holdings changes: none are reported in the news, so price and volume are the only evidence.