ProShares Trust ProShares Ultra (SLON) fell about 10% to $26.05 on October 30, 2026, extending a 17% five-day slide while the S&P 500 gained. The fund now sits 40% below its October 6 peak and under both its 50-day and 200-day averages. The balance of evidence leans negative with medium conviction: the daily and weekly trends point the same way, and SLON trails the market badly. None of the news provided explains the drop.
Why it matters
The articles matched to SLON are all about the crypto ecosystem, and all are a month old. Bitwise launched the first U.S. spot Near ETF on September 29, Robinhood announced perpetual futures, weekend stock trading and AI trading agents on September 30, and the SEC cleared token buybacks for functional networks on September 28. These are constructive headlines for the theme. The fund then peaked on October 6 and lost 40% from there. Nothing in the file names SLON's holdings, reports fund flows, or covers the past three weeks, so no specific holding or event can be blamed for the decline.
The attribution is clear even if the cause is not. Over five days SLON fell 17.1% while SPY rose 0.7%, so the market contributed nothing to the slide. No sector benchmark is available for comparison. The move belongs to the fund and its theme alone. Even the day's 1.2% SPY dip does not account for a 10.1% one-day fall. Over a month SLON is down 36.4% against a 0.7% gain for SPY, and year to date it is down 63.0% against a 12.8% gain. The six-month figure is still +4.8%, which shows how much of the earlier gain has been erased.
No articles in the file argue the case for or against SLON, so there is no debate to report and no figure to attribute to either side. Analyst targets and valuation spreads do not exist for this fund. The evidence is the price action: the stock is 86% below its 52-week high of $190.65 and 89% above its low of $13.81. That is a wide range for any fund, and it puts the current price in the lower third of it.
What the evidence says
The long-term trend is down. Price is below its 40-week average and below its 10-week average. The fund fell from $190.65 to $13.81 within a year, rebounded, and has now given back much of that rebound. The 200-day average at $29.32 is overhead, and SLON trails SPY by 15.4% over 200 days. The long-term thesis is broken as far as price is concerned, and the fund is in a late-stage decline with a failed rebound, not in a base.
For the next two to six weeks the evidence leans negative, and conviction is medium, with 2 of 4 points. Two things support the lean. The daily trend runs with the weekly downtrend, and SLON lags the S&P 500 by 23.7% over 50 days. The other two points are missing. The fund is already oversold, with RSI at 28, and there is no news catalyst pointing either way. That is why conviction stops at medium.
The strongest case against this reading is the history of oversold readings. After RSI fell below 30, shares were higher a month later 61.4% of the time across 303 cases, with a median move of +2.23%. After one-day drops of more than 5%, they were higher 70.9% of the time across 151 cases, with a median of +5.38%. The typical month is higher 61.8% of the time. So the oversold signal alone is no better than an ordinary month, and only the sharp-drop signal shows a real edge. A bounce is therefore a reasonable expectation, but a bounce toward $29.32 and $30 would run into the 200-day average, where sellers have shown up before. It would not repair the trend, and it does not tip the balance. Volume at 77% below its 20-day average also carries little weight, since the session was only partly done at the time of the data.
Levels that matter
The structure holds below $29.32, the 200-day average, which is where sellers have appeared on rallies. Round-number resistance at $30 sits just above it. The weekly downtrend ends only above $34.49, the 50-day average, followed by $35. Support runs from $25 to $20, then to the 52-week low at $13.81, and finally a swing zone near $4.85.
The breakout level is a daily close below $25.00, a round number sitting just under the $26.05 price. From there the first target is $13.81, the 52-week low, and the second is $4.85. The level at which the downside breakout would be wrong is $29.84, which is the 200-day average plus a quarter of the 2.08 ATR. Measured against that stop, the first target gives 2.3 to 1 and the second gives 4.2 to 1. The math therefore reaches the 3 to 1 mark only at the second target, which is far away and would require the fund to lose most of its remaining value.
What would change the picture
The picture changes on a weekly close above $34.49, the 50-day average. That would put the fund back above the level that marks the start of the recent breakdown and would be the first sign that buyers have regained control. The non-price fact that would most likely cause such a move is evidence that the selling in the underlying holdings has ended, for example a renewed pickup in crypto-product flows or a catalyst tied to the theme. The recent product launches and SEC guidance did not prevent this decline, so only a change in actual flows or holdings would carry weight.
What to watch
- A daily close below $25.00, which would activate the downside math toward $13.81.
- Any rally into $29.32 to $30.00, and whether it fails there as it has before.
- A weekly close above $34.49, which would change the picture.
- RSI, now 28.05, and whether the oversold reading leads to a bounce or stays pinned.
- Fund flows and holdings changes, which are not reported in the news provided.
- SPY, up 12.8% this year but down 1.2% on the day: the market is not the source of SLON's weakness, so a sharp market fall would add to the pressure, not explain it. No earnings or scheduled policy dates appear in the file.