Price: $1.0711
· 1 day: +1.46% · 5 days: -9.08% · 1 month: -20.04% · YTD: -41.79%
As of 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC.
52-week range: $0.9884 – $2.52 (currently at 5% of the range).
XRP-USD is in a downtrend, momentum soft. $1.1 is the level overhead; $1.052 the first support below.
5 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.
| Trend | Downtrend · below 50-day & below 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 26.9 · oversold · MACD bearish |
| Trend strength | ADX 25.0 · strong trend |
| Location | -20.4% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -32% from high · +8% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 0.05 · ~4.7%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $1.1 (resistance) | round | 2.7% |
| $1.15 (resistance) | round | 7.37% |
| $1.255 (resistance) | swing zone | 17.17% |
| $1.052 (support) | swing zone | -1.78% |
| $1.0 (support) | round | -6.64% |
| $0.992 (support) | 52w low | -7.38% |
| RSI (14) | 26.92 | MACD | -0.0689 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 25.0 | ATR (14) | 0.05 |
| 50-day average | $1.345 | 200-day average | $1.2628 |
Report of 2026-11-11.
XRP-USD slipped to $1.0552 on November 11, extending a sharp decline that began after the October 21 peak at $1.36. The daily price is now below the swing‑zone support at $1.052 and the broader weekly trend remains down, with the market price still under the 200‑week simple moving average of $1.2628. The balance of evidence points to a bearish outlook for the next two to six weeks, with medium conviction supported by a daily trend that mirrors the weekly downtrend and a lag of roughly 21% versus the S&P 500 over the past 50 days.
The recent move reflects the convergence of three macro‑level forces: a weakening dollar, persistent high‑interest rates, and the ongoing debate over spot crypto‑ETF approvals. The dollar’s strength has eroded demand for dollar‑denominated crypto assets, while the Federal Reserve’s policy stance keeps rates elevated, limiting risk‑on capital that might otherwise flow into XRP. At the same time, the market is still digesting the lack of a definitive regulatory green light for a spot XRP‑ETF, which keeps institutional inflows tentative.
From a market‑relative perspective, XRP-USD underperformed both the broader equity market and the S&P 500. Over the past five days the crypto pair fell 10.43% while the S&P 500 slipped only 0.59%, and over 50 days XRP lagged the index by 21.0%. This divergence suggests that the move is driven more by asset‑specific sentiment than by a sector‑wide shift, as the broader market has been relatively stable.
The debate among market participants centers on two opposing narratives. One camp argues that the recent price drop is an overreaction to regulatory uncertainty and that a forthcoming spot ETF could trigger a rapid inflow, pushing the price back toward the $1.15 round resistance. The other camp points to the sustained downtrend, the price’s position below both the 50‑week and 40‑week averages, and the low RSI of 23.8 as evidence that bearish momentum remains dominant. Both sides cite the same data points—price levels, volume spikes, and macro conditions—but differ on the weight they assign to potential regulatory catalysts versus the current technical weakness.
No earnings or valuation metrics exist for XRP, so the discussion is purely about flows, adoption, and macro backdrop. The lack of a concrete earnings narrative means that price action is more sensitive to news about exchange listings, institutional custody solutions, and regulatory rulings, all of which remain unresolved.
Long‑term, the thesis that XRP is in a downtrend remains intact. The price sits below its 40‑week average and is 32.9% beneath the 52‑week high of $1.57, while still 6.4% above the 52‑week low of $0.99. The 200‑week SMA at $1.2628 sits well above current levels, reinforcing the structural bias to the downside. The RSI of 23.8 signals oversold conditions, but in a downtrend that often reflects continued selling pressure rather than a reversal signal.
Looking ahead to the next two to six weeks, the balance of evidence leans negative. The assessment calls for a bearish stance with medium conviction, based on the daily trend aligning with the weekly downtrend and a 21% underperformance versus the S&P 500 over 50 days. Conviction is only medium because the breakout math does not meet a 3‑to‑1 reward‑to‑risk ratio, and the price is still relatively close to the $1.052 swing‑zone support, leaving limited downside cushion before the 52‑week low at $0.992.
The strongest counter‑argument is that a successful spot ETF launch or a major exchange listing could inject fresh demand, potentially lifting the price back toward the $1.15 round resistance. However, without a clear regulatory signal, that scenario remains speculative and does not outweigh the current technical and relative‑strength evidence.
The structure currently holds below the $1.10 round level, a price where sellers have historically stepped in on rally attempts. The weekly trend would only be considered ended if the price closed above the 200‑week SMA at $1.2628, a level that also serves as a swing‑zone resistance.
The breakout math defines a downside breakout as a daily close below $1.052, the swing‑zone support. The stop is set at $1.11, calculated as $1.10 plus a quarter of the 14‑day ATR of $0.05. The primary target is $0.992, the 52‑week low, offering a reward‑to‑risk of 1.0. Because the math does not achieve a 3‑to‑1 ratio, a price move to roughly $0.94 would be needed to meet that threshold, which is well below the current support zone.
A weekly close above the 200‑week SMA at $1.2628 would signal the end of the weekly downtrend and could shift the bias toward the upside. The non‑price catalyst that would most likely trigger such a close is a definitive regulatory approval for a spot XRP‑ETF, which would open the door to large institutional inflows.
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