BIL — SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (ETF)

Price: $91.46 · 1 day: +0.03% · 5 days: -0.26% · 1 month: +0.00% · YTD: +0.09%
As of 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC.

52-week range: $91.26 – $91.73 (currently at 43% of the range).

The brief

BIL is in a downtrend, momentum soft. $91.53 is the level overhead; $91.27 the first support below.

5 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.

TrendDowntrend · below 50-day & below 200-day
MomentumRSI 40.83 · neutral · MACD bearish
Trend strengthADX 25.9 · strong trend
Location-0.1% vs 50-day MA
52-week range-0% from high · +0% from low
VolatilityATR 0.04 · ~0.0%/day

Key levels

LevelTypeDistance
$91.53 (resistance)swing zone0.08%
$100.0 (resistance)round9.34%
$110.0 (resistance)round20.27%
$91.27 (support)52w low-0.21%
$90.0 (support)round-1.6%
$80.0 (support)round-12.53%

Indicators

RSI (14)40.83MACD-0.0201
ADX (14)25.9ATR (14)0.04
50-day average$91.53200-day average$91.53

1-3 Month US T-Bills (BIL) stock analysis, July 29, 2025: BIL sits at $91.72, but outflows hit as the Dow jumps 400 points

Report of 2025-07-29, updated 2025-08-04.

Current Trend

BIL is trading sideways with minimal volatility, typical of short-term Treasury instruments. The current price of $91.72 is up a modest 0.32% year to date, consistent with the fund's role as a risk-free asset. Short-term moves remain within the noise, underscoring the ETF's function as a capital-preservation vehicle.

Investment Thesis

BIL is positioned as a go-to vehicle for parking cash short-term while the Fed's rate path is uncertain. The fund preserves capital with minimal interest-rate risk thanks to its short portfolio duration of one to three months. Its appeal rests on current short-term yields and institutional demand for liquid, risk-free assets.

Thesis Status

The thesis is playing out as expected. The stable price action confirms the fund is doing its job as a capital-preservation tool. That said, outflows recorded on July 2 point to money rotating into risk assets as equities rally.

Key Drivers

• Rising popularity of ultra-short bond ETFs among rate-wary investors, as seen with SGOV, which has topped $50.3 billion in assets • Fixed-income ETF assets hit a record $2 trillion, signaling structural demand growth • Cyclical outflows during stock-market rallies, as captured when the Dow jumped 400 points

Technical Picture

Technical analysis of BIL is limited by the nature of the asset. The price is stuck in a tight band around $91.72 with no clear trend or meaningful support/resistance levels. Minimal volatility — moves of 0.01% to 0.07% over short stretches — is consistent with short-term Treasuries. The absence of any significant price action confirms the fund's stability.

Bull Case

• Fixed-income assets hit a record $2 trillion, a favorable backdrop for short-duration funds • The success of rival ultra-short products like SGOV, with $50.3 billion in assets, shows durable demand for the category • Rate caution among investors keeps demand for short-term risk-free instruments firm • The +0.32% year-to-date gain shows the fund can generate modest but steady income • Minimal volatility makes it attractive for conservative portfolios

Bear Case

• Outflows as the Dow rose 400 points show capital rotating into risk assets • Competition from higher-yielding ultra-short products, including SGOV, could erode relative appeal • Fed rate cuts would reduce the fund's yield • Improving market sentiment lowers demand for defensive assets • Limited upside in the price given the nature of short-term Treasuries

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