Price: $37.67
· 1 day: +0.83% · 5 days: -3.39% · 1 month: -5.38% · YTD: +7.75%
As of 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC.
52-week range: $30.67 – $41.52 (currently at 65% of the range).
CPER is in a downtrend, momentum soft. $37.96 is the level overhead; $37.48 the first support below.
5 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.
| Trend | Downtrend · below 50-day & below 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 37.37 · bullish · MACD bearish |
| Trend strength | ADX 13.3 · weak or range |
| Location | -4.9% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -9% from high · +23% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 0.73 · ~1.9%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $37.96 (resistance) | sma 200 | 0.77% |
| $38.14 (resistance) | swing zone | 1.25% |
| $39.06 (resistance) | swing zone | 3.69% |
| $37.48 (support) | swing zone | -0.5% |
| $36.39 (support) | swing zone | -3.4% |
| $35.23 (support) | swing zone | -6.48% |
| RSI (14) | 37.37 | MACD | -0.4413 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 13.3 | ATR (14) | 0.73 |
| 50-day average | $39.63 | 200-day average | $37.96 |
Report of 2026-11-03.
CPER slipped to $38.66 on November 3, extending a five‑day decline that left it 4.8% below its October 12 peak. The pullback sits inside a longer weekly uptrend, with price still above its 40‑week average, and the technical picture points to a low‑conviction bullish bias for the next two to six weeks.
The recent move was driven largely by a broader sell‑off in commodities after record earnings from oil majors and a tightening copper market. Morningstar reported that ExxonMobil and Chevron posted record third‑quarter earnings, pushing Brent crude above $113 a barrel. While CPER is a copper‑focused ETF, the surge in oil prices lifted risk‑off sentiment and pulled commodity‑linked assets lower when the rally faded.
CPER’s own 5‑day performance was –3.47%, outpacing the S&P 500’s –2.09% decline over the same period. The basket therefore lagged the broad market by about 1.1% on a 50‑day basis, confirming the assessment that it is “lagging the S&P 500 over 50 days.” The pullback appears to be a technical correction rather than a fundamental shift in the copper theme.
Debate around CPER centers on whether the recent copper rally, highlighted by a $400 million loan to Marimaca Copper Corp. and the approval of the Copper World project in Arizona, will sustain higher prices. Proponents argue that tighter supply and expanding demand from electric‑vehicle production support a bullish outlook, while skeptics point to labor unrest at Antofagasta’s Chilean mines and the volatility of geopolitical risk that can quickly reverse price gains. No single news item in the last week directly referenced CPER, suggesting the move was largely market‑driven.
Valuation metrics are not applicable here because the analysis focuses on the basket’s price action relative to its technical framework, not on earnings or price targets.
The long‑term thesis remains intact: copper demand is expected to grow, and CPER’s price is still above its 40‑week average, indicating an uptrend that has not been broken. The current pullback has pushed the ETF into oversold territory on the 14‑day RSI (41.8), a level that historically precedes a bounce in similar commodity‑linked funds.
For the next two to six weeks the balance of evidence leans modestly positive. The assessment calls for a bullish stance with low conviction, based on a pullback that has reached oversold levels and the fact that the fund is still trading above its swing‑zone support at $38.14. The conviction is low because the breakout math does not meet a 3‑to‑1 reward‑to‑risk ratio, and volume is 88.5% below its 20‑day average, indicating limited buying pressure.
The strongest case against a near‑term upside is the fund’s lag to the S&P 500 (‑1.1% over 50 days) and the weak volume, which could allow a further slide to the next support at $37.93, the 200‑day SMA. Those numbers keep the conviction from rising.
Structurally, CPER holds above the swing‑zone support at $38.14. A break below that level would constitute the first crack in the structure, while a close below the 200‑day SMA at $37.93 would signal the end of the weekly uptrend. The price is currently $0.73 above the swing‑zone support, giving the structure some cushion.
The breakout target is a daily close above $39.06 on volume above the 20‑day average. If that occurs, the first price objective is $39.77, aligned with the 50‑day SMA, offering a reward‑to‑risk of 0.7. A second target at $40.74, the next swing‑zone resistance, provides a reward‑to‑risk of 1.6. Because the math does not reach a 3‑to‑1 ratio, a price move to roughly $41.50 would be needed for the risk‑reward profile to become compelling.
A weekly close below $37.93, the 200‑day SMA, would invalidate the current weekly trend and shift the bias negative. A non‑price catalyst such as a major copper supply disruption—e.g., an escalation of the Antofagasta strike—or a significant policy shift affecting commodity demand could also alter the outlook.
Interactive CPER chart and analyst chat · Market terminal — movers, signals and news · Use MarketCrew inside Claude · Use MarketCrew inside ChatGPT · Top gainers today · 52-week highs