Price: $94.21
· 1 day: -1.51% · 5 days: -4.13% · 1 month: -17.58% · YTD: +48.29%
As of 2026-11-10 17:32 UTC.
52-week range: $59.96 – $118.47 (currently at 59% of the range).
EWT is turning up, momentum soft. $97.25 is the level overhead; $94.26 the first support below.
4 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.
| Trend | Turning up · below 50-day & 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 37.9 · MACD bearish |
| Trend strength | ADX 33.3 · strong trend |
| Location | -13.0% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -20% from high · +57% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 4.02 · ~4.3%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $97.25 (resistance) | swing zone | 3.04% |
| $100.0 (resistance) | round | 5.95% |
| $103.1 (resistance) | swing zone | 9.23% |
| $94.26 (support) | sma 200 | -0.13% |
| $90.0 (support) | round | -4.65% |
| $89.0 (support) | swing zone | -5.71% |
| RSI (14) | 37.93 | MACD | -4.7566 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 33.3 | ATR (14) | 4.02 |
| 50-day average | $108.53 | 200-day average | $94.26 |
Report of 2026-11-04.
iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) slipped to $96.66 on November 4, 2026, extending a five‑day decline of more than 11% that has left the fund well below its recent peak of $118 on October 5. The pullback sits inside a longer‑term uptrend—price remains above its 40‑week average—and the weekly trend now looks oversold, with the 14‑day RSI at 27.6. The balance of evidence points to a low‑conviction bullish reading for the next two to six weeks, but the downside risk remains anchored at the 200‑day SMA of $93.81.
The recent move was driven largely by sector‑wide pressure on AI‑related chips, highlighted by Intel’s guidance miss on October 29 that sent the stock down nearly 30% and reverberated through Taiwan’s semiconductor exposure. While EWT does not hold Intel directly, the fund’s Taiwan weighting includes major chip manufacturers that are sensitive to the same demand dynamics. The sell‑off was not a surprise; investors had already priced in a softening PC market and a modest slowdown in AI spend, as reflected in the modest 1‑month decline of the S&P 500 (‑1.3%) versus the fund’s sharper 1‑month drop (‑18.1%).
At the five‑day horizon the fund underperformed the S&P 500 by 12.0%, indicating that the move was more than just market drift. The 5‑day attribution numbers show the fund’s basket fell –11.27% while the broader market slipped only 0.99%, confirming that sector‑specific pressure, not a general market sell‑off, drove the decline.
Analysts remain divided on the longer‑term outlook for Taiwan’s AI‑heavy exposure. CNBC took a neutral stance, noting Intel’s solid earnings but warning that the guidance miss underscores lingering PC weakness. By contrast, Bloomberg Business highlighted Taiwan’s record‑breaking GDP growth, driven by AI demand, suggesting the macro backdrop remains supportive for the region’s chip sector.
There is no direct valuation debate for the ETF itself; the fund’s price reflects the weighted average of its constituents. The recent news does not alter the fund’s expense structure or its broad diversification across large‑cap Taiwanese equities, so the move is purely a reaction to sector sentiment.
The long‑term thesis—that Taiwan’s semiconductor and AI ecosystem will continue to benefit from global demand—remains intact. The fund stays above its 40‑week average, and the 200‑day SMA at $93.81 provides a structural floor that has held since the last major correction. The weekly trend is still upward, but the current pullback has pushed the price into oversold territory, creating a potential re‑entry point if the sector stabilises.
For the next two to six weeks the balance of evidence leans modestly positive. The assessment calls for a bullish stance with low conviction, based on two points: the pullback has reached an oversold condition and the fund is lagging the S&P 500 over a 50‑day window. The conviction is limited because the breakout math does not meet a 3‑to‑1 reward‑to‑risk ratio; the first target at $103.10 offers a 1.4‑to‑1 payoff, while the second at $108.92 gives 2.8‑to‑1, still short of the preferred threshold.
The strongest case against a near‑term bounce is the fund’s weak volume—trading at 28.7% below its 20‑day average—and the continued weakness in the broader AI chip segment, exemplified by Intel’s guidance miss and the broader market’s 12% underperformance versus the S&P 500. Those factors keep conviction low and underscore why the math falls short of a 3‑to‑1 edge.
The structure holds above the 200‑day SMA at $93.81; a close below that level would signal the first crack in the weekly uptrend. The trend would be considered ended if price falls beneath the swing‑zone support at $89.00, a level that also marks the lower bound of the recent 52‑week range.
The breakout target is a daily close above $97.25 on volume exceeding the 20‑day average. If that occurs, the math projects two upside targets: $103.10 (reward‑to‑risk 1.4) and $108.92 (reward‑to‑risk 2.8). Because the reward‑to‑risk does not reach 3‑to‑1, a price move to roughly $110 would be needed to achieve that threshold. The stop is set at $93.10, derived from the 200‑day SMA less a quarter of the 14‑day ATR.
A weekly close below $89.00 would trigger a picture change, indicating the weekly trend has ended. A non‑price catalyst such as a major policy shift affecting AI chip exports from Taiwan, or a significant flow event into or out of the fund, could also alter the outlook.
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