Price: $16.61
· 1 day: -6.74% · 5 days: -18.54% · 1 month: -32.75% · YTD: -32.26%
As of 2026-11-04 21:00 UTC.
52-week range: $16.06 – $50.73 (currently at 2% of the range).
APLD is in a downtrend, momentum soft. $17 is the level overhead; $16.22 the first support below.
6 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.
| Trend | Downtrend · below 50-day & below 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 39.46 · bearish · MACD bearish |
| Trend strength | ADX 32.0 · strong trend |
| Location | -29.1% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -67% from high · +2% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 1.84 · ~11.1%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $17.0 (resistance) | round | 2.35% |
| $18.0 (resistance) | round | 8.37% |
| $23.4 (resistance) | swing zone | 40.88% |
| $16.22 (support) | 52w low | -2.35% |
| $16.0 (support) | round | -3.67% |
| $15.0 (support) | round | -9.69% |
| RSI (14) | 39.46 | MACD | -1.9013 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 32.0 | ATR (14) | 1.84 |
| 50-day average | $23.41 | 200-day average | $31.04 |
Next earnings: 2027-01-06. APLD earnings date, time and past reactions.
Report of 2026-11-05.
Applied Digital’s shares slipped to $16.61 on November 4, extending a steep decline that has erased more than two‑thirds of the stock’s value since its October peak of $25.38. The daily price action follows a weekly downtrend, and the stock now trades well below its 40‑week average, confirming a bearish bias for the next two to six weeks. With the balance of evidence pointing to further downside, the math suggests limited upside unless a clear breakout occurs.
The recent drop of over 5% in a single session mirrors a pattern that, historically, leads to a further 70.9% decline a month later, according to the 151 cases tracked for similar moves. The market reaction was amplified by the broader weakness in the technology sector, where the XLK ETF fell 7.6% over the past five days, outpacing the S&P 500’s modest 0.7% decline. The stock’s own 5‑day loss of 18.5% therefore reflects both sector pressure and company‑specific weakness.
Pricing in the market already accounted for the sector’s lag, as evidenced by XLK’s 50‑day underperformance of 23.8% versus the S&P 500’s 29.0% lag. APLD’s lag against the index over the same period is even more pronounced at –29.0%, indicating that the stock is moving more sharply down than the broader market. This divergence suggests that investors are penalising APLD beyond what the sector’s fundamentals would dictate.
Analyst sentiment remains at odds with price action. Sixteen analysts rate the stock a strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.94—roughly 73% above the current price. The low end of the target range sits at $22, still above today’s level, but the consensus appears disconnected from the technical reality of a downtrend that has pushed the price below its 40‑week average and 52‑week low of $16.22.
Both sides of the debate cite the same data. Proponents point to the strong buy consensus and the long‑term upside implied by the $60.94 mean target, arguing that the market has over‑reacted to short‑term weakness. Critics highlight the daily trend’s alignment with the weekly downtrend, the stock’s lag versus both the S&P 500 and XLK, and the fact that volume is only 24.9% above its 20‑day average—insufficient to suggest a reversal.
On the long‑term horizon the thesis that APLD could rebound to its historic highs is severely weakened. The price sits below both the 50‑day SMA ($23.41) and the 200‑day SMA ($31.04), and the 52‑week range shows a 66.5% drop from the high of $49.65. The RSI at 39.5 signals that the stock is not yet oversold, but the sustained breach of key moving averages confirms a bearish phase.
For the next two to six weeks the balance of evidence leans negative with high conviction. The assessment notes that the daily trend runs with the weekly downtrend, the stock lags the S&P 500 by 29% over 50 days, and it lags XLK by 23.8% over the same span. All three points align, reinforcing a bearish outlook. The strongest counter‑argument is the strong‑buy consensus and a mean target of $60.94, yet that figure remains 73% above the current price and is not supported by the technical structure; therefore it does not overturn the high‑conviction bearish reading.
The structure holds the price above $17.0, a round level where sellers have repeatedly stepped in on rallies. The weekly trend would be considered ended only if the price closes above $29.12, a swing‑zone resistance that marks a potential shift in momentum.
The breakout math is downside‑focused. A daily close below $16.22, the 52‑week low, would trigger the downside scenario. The stop is set at $17.46, derived from a round $17.0 plus a quarter of the 14‑day ATR ($1.84). Targets are $16.0 (reward‑to‑risk 0.2) and $15.0 (reward‑to‑risk 1.0). The trade does not meet a 3‑to‑1 reward‑to‑risk ratio; a price move to roughly $14.0 would be required to achieve that threshold.
A weekly close above $29.12 would alter the narrative, indicating that the weekly downtrend has been broken. A non‑price catalyst such as a materially better‑than‑expected earnings report on January 7, 2027, could also shift sentiment, especially if revenue growth or margin expansion exceeds consensus expectations.
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