Price: $31.31
· 1 day: +3.88% · 5 days: +12.42% · 1 month: +1.37% · YTD: +95.75%
As of 2026-11-10 17:45 UTC.
52-week range: $12.51 – $33.17 (currently at 91% of the range).
GEO is in an uptrend, momentum firm. $32.32 is the level overhead; $30.04 the first support below.
6 of 6 technical checks lean bullish.
| Trend | Uptrend · above 50-day & 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 59.3 · MACD bullish |
| Trend strength | ADX 26.4 · strong trend |
| Location | +4.4% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -4% from high · +136% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 1.51 · ~4.8%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $32.32 (resistance) | swing zone | 3.23% |
| $32.77 (resistance) | 52w high | 4.66% |
| $33.16 (resistance) | swing zone | 5.91% |
| $30.04 (support) | swing zone | -4.06% |
| $28.81 (support) | swing zone | -7.98% |
| $25.0 (support) | round | -20.15% |
| RSI (14) | 59.29 | MACD | -0.3126 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 26.4 | ATR (14) | 1.51 |
| 50-day average | $29.98 | 200-day average | $24.63 |
Next earnings: 2026-11-05. GEO earnings date, time and past reactions.
Report of 2026-11-08.
GEO Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) fell 2.5% over the past five sessions, closing at $27.80 on November 6, 2026, after a 10.4% one-day jump on earnings that beat on adjusted profit but showed a 70% drop in reported EPS. The stock is now 14% below its October 5 peak of $32.34, and the weekly uptrend that had been the backbone of the bullish case is under pressure. The balance of evidence for the next 2–6 weeks is neutral, with low conviction, as the pullback has not yet reached the levels that would break the long-term trend but has also not shown the strength to resume it.
The story here is a company that reported a record quarter on an adjusted basis but saw its reported net income collapse. On November 5, 2026, GEO reported Q3 revenue of $761.1 million, up 12% year-over-year, with adjusted net income of $51.8 million, up 48%, and adjusted EBITDA of $145.3 million, which the company called a record (SEC EDGAR). The next day, the 10-Q filing showed reported net income fell 72% to $49.2 million, with diluted EPS of $0.37, down 70% (SEC EDGAR). The market chose to focus on the adjusted numbers, sending the stock up 10.4% on November 6, but that bounce came after a 14% slide from the October peak, and the five-day return is still negative.
The move over the past week was not a GEO-specific story. The stock fell 2.5% over five days, but the S&P 500 fell 2.7% over the same period, so GEO essentially matched the market. The stock has lagged the S&P 500 by 3.6% over the last 50 days, which is a sign of relative weakness that contradicts the long-term uptrend. The one-day bounce on earnings was real, but it has not been enough to reverse the broader pullback.
The debate about GEO is not about the quarter. It is about the business model and the political backdrop. On one side, the company is benefiting from government contracts, including the $950 million sale of California ICE jails to the US government, announced October 5, 2026 (Bloomberg Business). That sale provides cash and reduces exposure to a politically sensitive asset class. On the other side, the detention business is under constant scrutiny, as seen in the October 24, 2026 report of a detainee death at a Georgia facility (The Guardian), and the broader immigration debate remains a headline risk. The stock's valuation reflects this tension: the four analysts covering GEO have a consensus strong buy with a mean target of $39.00, implying 28.7% upside from the current price, but the low target of $36.00 is still well above where the stock trades.
The long-term thesis is intact but weakened. GEO trades above its 40-week average, which keeps the long-term trend up, but it is below its 10-week average, and the 50-day average of $30.03 is above the price, meaning the stock is in a pullback phase within a longer uptrend. The 200-day average sits at $24.50, and the stock is 13.5% above it, so there is room before the trend would be in question. The stock is up 25.2% over six months and 72.5% year-to-date, so the long-term story of a company that has restructured and is now generating cash from asset sales remains intact, but the momentum has clearly stalled.
For the next 2–6 weeks, the balance of evidence is even. The stock is not oversold (RSI at 46.15), it is below the 50-day average, and it has lagged the market over 50 days. The one-day bounce on earnings shows buyers are willing to step in, but the volume on that day was 112.5% of the 20-day average, which is not a massive surge. The strongest case against a neutral reading is that the stock could simply continue to drift lower toward the 200-day average at $24.50, which is 11.9% below the current price. That would be a normal pullback in a strong uptrend, but it would also mean another 10%+ decline from here. The reason conviction is low is that the evidence does not point clearly in either direction: the long-term trend is up, but the short-term momentum is down, and the earnings reaction was positive but not decisive.
The structure holds above $25.00, a round number that has acted as support, and the first crack below that would be a warning. The level where the trend would end is $24.50, which is the 200-day average; a weekly close below that would change the picture from a pullback to a potential trend reversal. Between $25.00 and $24.50, the stock would be in a zone where the long-term uptrend is still alive but under serious pressure.
On the upside, the first resistance is $28.98, a swing zone, and a daily close above that on volume above the 20-day average would be the first sign that buyers are back. From $28.98, the math gives a target of $32.24 (the next swing zone) and $32.77 (the 52-week high), but the reward-to-risk is only 0.8 and 0.9, respectively, against a stop at $24.67 (the $25.00 round number minus a quarter of the ATR of $1.33). That does not reach the 3-to-1 reward-to-risk that would make a breakout worth the risk. To get to 3-to-1, the stock would need to be closer to $25.00 or the targets would need to be higher, but as it stands, the math does not favor an upside breakout from current levels.
The picture would change on a weekly close below $24.50, the 200-day average. That would break the long-term uptrend and shift the stance from neutral to negative. The non-price fact that would change the picture is a further deterioration in the detention business, such as a major contract loss or a regulatory action that threatens the company's ability to operate its facilities. The October 8, 2026 8-K filing mentioned a material agreement and financial obligation, but the details were not disclosed (SEC EDGAR), and that kind of event could be the catalyst that breaks the trend.
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