Price: $39.55
· 1 day: -4.65% · 5 days: -7.89% · 1 month: -15.55% · YTD: -44.44%
As of 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC.
52-week range: $39.11 – $99.9 (currently at 1% of the range).
LMND is in a downtrend, momentum soft. $40 is the level overhead; $35 the first support below.
6 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.
| Trend | Downtrend · below 50-day & below 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 41.37 · bearish · MACD bearish |
| Trend strength | ADX 15.4 · weak or range |
| Location | -15.3% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -59% from high · +0% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 2.6 · ~6.6%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $40.0 (resistance) | round | 1.14% |
| $45.0 (resistance) | round | 13.78% |
| $46.67 (resistance) | sma 50 | 18.0% |
| $35.0 (support) | round | -11.5% |
| $30.0 (support) | round | -24.15% |
| RSI (14) | 41.37 | MACD | -1.379 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 15.4 | ATR (14) | 2.6 |
| 50-day average | $46.67 | 200-day average | $57.36 |
Next earnings: 2026-11-05. LMND earnings date, time and past reactions.
Report of 2026-11-06.
Lemonade (LMND) fell 5.3% on November 6, 2026, to $39.27, extending a slide that has left the stock down 16.1% over the past month and 44.8% year-to-date. The decline follows a quarterly report that showed strong revenue growth but continued losses, and the stock now sits below its 50-day and 200-day averages. The evidence points to a bearish stance over the next 2–6 weeks, with high conviction, as the daily trend aligns with the weekly downtrend and the stock lags both the S&P 500 and the financial sector.
Lemonade reported Q3 2026 results on November 5, 2026, with revenue of $336.1 million, up 73% year-over-year, and a net loss of $43.7 million, a 17% improvement from the prior year. In Force Premium reached $1.55 billion, up 34%, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of accelerating growth. The market's reaction was harsh: the stock dropped 5.3% on the day, and over the past five days it has fallen 8.5%. The move was not driven by the broader market or sector—the S&P 500 fell 2.1% over the same period, while the financial sector ETF XLF actually rose 2.1%. The stock underperformed its sector by 10.6 percentage points over five days, indicating that the sell-off is company-specific.
What was already priced in? The stock had been declining for weeks before the report, falling from a recent peak of $46.91 on October 8, 2026, to $39.27, a drop of 16.3%. The earnings report, despite strong top-line growth, did not reassure investors about the path to profitability. The company still posted a net loss, and the market's focus appears to be on the bottom line rather than growth. The stock's 50-day relative performance versus the S&P 500 is -12.7%, and versus XLF it is -18.2%, showing persistent underperformance.
The debate about LMND centers on whether its AI-driven model can eventually deliver profits. Proponents point to the accelerating growth in In Force Premium and the 73% revenue increase as evidence that the model is scaling. Critics note that the company continues to lose money, and the stock's valuation—at $39.27, it is 32.8% below the mean analyst target of $58.44—reflects skepticism. The analyst consensus is a hold, with targets ranging from $38.00 to $92.00. The recent expansion of renters insurance to Idaho, announced on October 27, 2026, is a positive but minor development, and the company's regulatory moat, as argued in a Forbes piece, may be a long-term advantage but does not address near-term profitability.
The earnings report was the catalyst, but the stock's reaction suggests that the market was already positioned for disappointment. The 5-day drop of 8.5% is more than the 1-day drop, indicating that selling pressure built ahead of and after the report. The volume on the day was 58% below the 20-day average, suggesting that the move was not a panic but a steady grind lower. The stock is now at its 52-week low, with no support below until $35.00.
Long-term, the thesis is weakened but not broken. The stock is below its 40-week average, and the weekly trend is down. The 50-day average at $46.67 and the 200-day average at $57.36 are both well above the current price, indicating a downtrend. The stock is in a clear bear phase, with the 52-week range showing a 59.3% drop from the high of $96.57. The RSI at 40.82 is not oversold, leaving room for further downside.
Over the next 2–6 weeks, the balance of evidence leans negative. The daily trend runs with the weekly downtrend, and the stock is lagging both the S&P 500 and XLF over 50 days. The conviction is high, with 3 of 4 points supporting a bearish stance. The strongest case against this reading is the historical pattern: after a one-day drop of more than 5%, the stock has been higher a month later 70.9% of the time, with a median gain of 5.38%. However, that pattern is based on 151 cases and does not account for the current downtrend. The stock's underperformance relative to its sector is stark, and the lack of a positive catalyst in the near term suggests the downtrend will persist.
The structure holds below $40.00, a round number where sellers have shown up on rallies. The weekly trend is down, and any bounce toward $40.00 is likely to be met with selling. The trend would end on a weekly close above $48.66, a swing zone that has acted as resistance. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower.
The downside breakout level is a daily close below $35.00, a round number. From there, the first target is $30.00, another round number. The stop for a breakout would be $40.65, which is $40.00 plus a quarter of the ATR (2.6). The reward-to-risk from $35.00 to $30.00 against a stop at $40.65 is 0.9 to 1, which does not meet the 3-to-1 threshold that makes a breakout worth the risk. To reach 3-to-1, the target would need to be around $23.00, which is not in the current support levels. The math does not favor a short from here, but the trend is clear.
A weekly close above $48.66 would signal that the downtrend has ended. That level is a swing zone that has capped rallies. On the fundamental side, a clear path to profitability—such as a quarter with a significantly narrowed net loss or positive cash flow—would change the narrative. The next earnings report is on November 5, 2026, and the key number to watch is the net loss, not revenue growth.
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