Price: $10.78
· 1 day: +10.22% · 5 days: +6.94% · 1 month: -3.92% · YTD: +60.42%
As of 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC.
52-week range: $6.2 – $13.39 (currently at 64% of the range).
NVAX is in an uptrend, momentum soft. $11 is the level overhead; $10.75 the first support below.
4 of 6 technical checks lean bullish.
| Trend | Uptrend · above 50-day & 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 49.74 · neutral · MACD bearish |
| Trend strength | ADX 27.0 · strong trend |
| Location | +2.1% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -16% from high · +73% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 0.83 · ~7.7%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $11.0 (resistance) | round | 2.04% |
| $12.0 (resistance) | round | 11.32% |
| $12.82 (resistance) | 52w high | 18.92% |
| $10.75 (support) | swing zone | -0.28% |
| $10.56 (support) | sma 50 | -2.04% |
| $10.0 (support) | round | -7.24% |
| RSI (14) | 49.74 | MACD | -0.1825 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 27.0 | ATR (14) | 0.83 |
| 50-day average | $10.56 | 200-day average | $9.33 |
Next earnings: 2026-11-05. NVAX earnings date, time and past reactions.
Report of 2026-11-06.
Novavax (NVAX) shares jumped 10.8% on November 5, 2026, after the company beat third-quarter revenue estimates and raised its full-year 2026 revenue framework to $400 million, while narrowing its net loss sharply. The stock closed at $10.835, still 15.5% below its October 13 peak of $12.82, but the move confirms that the earnings catalyst has reset the narrative. The balance of evidence leans positive for the next 2–6 weeks, with the daily trend aligned with the weekly uptrend, though conviction is medium because the stock still lags its sector over 50 days.
Novavax reported third-quarter revenue of $68.3 million, beating consensus by $17.9 million, with product sales surging 91% year-over-year to $26 million on supply sales to license partners and Sanofi. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue framework by $145 million to $400 million at the midpoint, citing progress on its Sanofi partnership and cost controls. Net loss narrowed to $31 million from $202 million a year earlier, while R&D expenses fell 47% and SG&A expenses declined, according to the PR Newswire release. The market rewarded the beat and guidance hike with a 10.8% one-day gain, but the stock had been sliding since mid-October, so part of the move reflects relief that the worst fears were not realized.
The 5-day performance shows the stock up 7.5%, while the S&P 500 fell 2.0% and the healthcare sector ETF XLV rose 0.2%. That means NVAX outperformed its sector by 7.3 percentage points over five days, a clear sign that the earnings news drove the move, not the market or sector tailwinds. Over 50 days, NVAX leads the S&P 500 by 6.3% but lags XLV by 4.1%, which suggests that while the stock has been strong relative to the broad market, it has underperformed its own sector—a point that tempers conviction.
The debate around NVAX is sharp. On the bearish side, Citigroup reiterated a Sell rating on October 16, 2026, with a price target of $8, roughly 38% below the stock's level near its 52-week high, and noted short interest at about 28% of free float, as reported by Investing.com. On the bullish side, the earnings beat and guidance hike suggest the Sanofi partnership is gaining traction, and the company targets cash runway into 2029, per Seeking Alpha. The analyst consensus is Buy with a mean target of $14.44, but the range is wide—from $7 to $25—reflecting the uncertainty. The stock trades 25% below the mean target, which leaves room for upside if the company executes.
The long-term trend is up: the price is above its 40-week average, and the weekly trend is intact. The stock is in a pullback phase that has now turned into a recovery attempt, with the daily trend running with the weekly uptrend. The thesis is not broken—the earnings beat and guidance hike reinforce the fundamental story—but the stock is still 15.5% below its recent peak, and the 50-day average at $10.56 is the line in the sand.
For the next 2–6 weeks, the balance of evidence leans positive, with medium conviction. The daily trend is aligned with the weekly uptrend, and the stock is leading the S&P 500 over 50 days by 6.3%. However, the lag against XLV over 50 days (-4.1%) and the fact that only 2 of 4 conviction points are met keep conviction at medium. The strongest case against the positive reading is that the stock has failed to hold above $11.0, a round resistance level, and volume on the recent up days has been below average—volume versus the 20-day average is -54.5%. That suggests the move may lack follow-through. But the earnings catalyst and the raised guidance tilt the balance positive, and the stock's ability to hold above the 50-day average supports the constructive view.
The structure holds above $10.75, a swing zone, and the first crack below that level would signal weakness. The trend would end below $10.56, the 50-day average—a weekly close below that would change the picture. The stock closed at $10.835, just above both levels, so the immediate risk is a slip back into the $10.50–$10.75 zone.
On the upside, a daily close above $11.0 (round) on volume above its 20-day average would be the breakout signal. From there, the math gives a first target of $12.82 (the 52-week high) with a reward-to-risk of 4.0, and a second target of $13.37 (a swing zone) with a reward-to-risk of 5.2, using a stop at $10.54 (10.75 minus a quarter of ATR). That meets the 3-to-1 threshold, making the breakout worth watching. If the stock fails to break $11.0, the range between $10.75 and $11.0 remains the battleground.
A weekly close below $10.56, the 50-day average, would change the picture from positive to negative, as it would signal that the recovery attempt has failed and the trend is turning down. The one non-price fact that would do it is a negative update on the Sanofi partnership—for example, a delay or termination of a milestone—which would undermine the revenue framework and the cash runway story.
The next earnings date is November 5, 2026, but that has already passed; the next report will be for Q4 2026, likely in February 2027. The number that matters most is product sales growth, which surged 91% year-over-year in Q3—sustaining that pace is key. Sector events, such as moves in Moderna or other vaccine makers, can influence NVAX before its own news. Valuation: the stock trades 25% below the mean analyst target of $14.44, but the wide range ($7–$25) reflects the risk. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout above $11.0.
Interactive NVAX chart and analyst chat · Market terminal — movers, signals and news · Use MarketCrew inside Claude · Use MarketCrew inside ChatGPT · Top gainers today · 52-week highs