Price: $18.05
· 1 day: -1.23% · 5 days: -7.93% · 1 month: -28.97% · YTD: +52.36%
As of 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC.
52-week range: $11.43 – $26.39 (currently at 44% of the range).
PBR is in a downtrend, momentum soft. $18.52 is the level overhead; $18 the first support below.
5 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.
| Trend | Downtrend · below 50-day & below 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 23.7 · oversold · MACD bearish |
| Trend strength | ADX 44.2 · strong trend |
| Location | -18.2% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -31% from high · +56% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 1.05 · ~5.8%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $18.52 (resistance) | swing zone | 2.58% |
| $19.0 (resistance) | round | 5.23% |
| $19.23 (resistance) | swing zone | 6.51% |
| $18.0 (support) | round | -0.3% |
| $17.57 (support) | swing zone | -2.69% |
| $17.0 (support) | round | -5.84% |
| RSI (14) | 23.72 | MACD | -1.2922 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 44.2 | ATR (14) | 1.05 |
| 50-day average | $22.07 | 200-day average | $19.36 |
Next earnings: 2026-11-10. PBR earnings date, time and past reactions.
Report of 2026-11-11.
Petrobras (PBR) opened the pre‑session at $18.28, still well below its recent peak of $26.16 from October 23, a drop of roughly 30 %. The daily price action follows a weekly downtrend that has kept the stock beneath its 40‑week average, and the balance of evidence points to a bearish outlook for the next two to six weeks. With a high conviction rating, the assessment hinges on a daily close below the round $18.0 level, a stop near $18.79, and targets at $17.57 and $15.94 that do not satisfy a 3‑to‑1 reward‑to‑risk ratio.
The market’s reaction to recent price action reflects a broader weakness in the energy sector. Over the past five days the stock fell 13.28 % while the S&P 500 slipped only 0.59 % and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) dropped 6.70 %. The stock’s under‑performance versus both the broad market (‑15.6 % versus SPY over 50 days) and its sector (‑13.5 % versus XLE over 50 days) underscores a relative weakness that is not fully explained by macro moves alone.
Most of the recent decline appears to be priced in. The daily trend aligns with the weekly downtrend, and the 50‑day simple moving average sits at $22.11, well above the current $18.28 price. The 200‑day average at $19.35 is also above the market, confirming that the stock remains in a longer‑term down phase. Volume is 14.8 % below its 20‑day average, indicating a lack of buying interest to sustain a rally.
Analyst sentiment remains surprisingly positive, with a consensus “buy” from 13 analysts and a mean price target of $23.89, roughly 24 % above the current price. The low end of the target range ($17.40) sits just below today’s price, but the high end ($31.00) assumes a reversal that the technical picture does not support. The spread between the mean target and today’s price highlights a disconnect between fundamental optimism and the prevailing technical weakness.
Debate among market participants centers on whether the stock can break the swing‑zone resistance at $18.52 and $19.23. One side argues that the energy sector’s recent rally—XLE up 39 % year‑to‑date—could lift PBR if oil prices stay firm, while the other side points to the stock’s RSI of 24.5, deep oversold conditions, and the failure to close above $19.23 in recent weeks as evidence that sellers remain in control. Both arguments rely on the same numbers, but the weight of evidence leans toward continued downside.
On the longer horizon the thesis that PBR is in a downtrend remains intact. The price is below both its 10‑week and 40‑week averages, the 50‑day SMA sits above the market, and the swing‑zone resistance at $18.52 has held firm despite multiple attempts to break it. The weekly trend remains negative, and the stock’s position 58 % above its 52‑week low still reflects a substantial decline from the recent high.
Looking ahead to the next two to six weeks, the balance of evidence is decidedly negative, with a high conviction rating based on three of four conviction points: the daily trend follows the weekly downtrend, the stock lags the S&P 500 by 15.6 % over 50 days, and it lags XLE by 13.5 % over the same period. The strongest case against this reading would be a sudden, sustained rally that pushes the price above the swing‑zone resistance at $19.23, but the current technical setup—no bullish momentum, weak volume, and a stop at $18.79—makes that scenario unlikely in the short term.
The structure holds the price above the swing‑zone level of $18.52, a zone where sellers have repeatedly stepped in on rallies. A close above $19.23, also a swing‑zone level, would signal the end of the weekly downtrend and could open the path to higher targets. Until that level is breached, the downside bias remains.
The breakout math is clear: a daily close below the round $18.0 level triggers the downside scenario. The stop is set at $18.79, derived from the $18.52 swing‑zone plus a quarter of the 14‑day ATR of $1.07. The first target at $17.57 offers a reward‑to‑risk of 0.5, while the second target at $15.94 provides a reward‑to‑risk of 2.6. Because the math does not reach a 3‑to‑1 ratio, the trade does not meet the preferred risk‑reward threshold; a price move to roughly $16.30 would be needed to achieve that level.
A weekly close above $19.23 would alter the current assessment, indicating that the weekly downtrend has been broken. Additionally, any material news that shifts the energy sector—such as a sharp move in oil prices or a regulatory change affecting integrated oil companies—could also reset the balance of evidence.
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