Price: $15.43
· 1 day: -0.90% · 5 days: -4.16% · 1 month: +3.63% · YTD: -32.91%
As of 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC.
52-week range: $12.73 – $39.89 (currently at 10% of the range).
RARE is in a downtrend, momentum firm. $16 is the level overhead; $15 the first support below.
4 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.
| Trend | Downtrend · below 50-day & below 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 52.64 · neutral · MACD bullish |
| Trend strength | ADX 15.8 · weak or range |
| Location | -3.7% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -58% from high · +20% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 0.9 · ~5.8%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $16.0 (resistance) | round | 3.69% |
| $17.0 (resistance) | round | 10.17% |
| $22.73 (resistance) | sma 200 | 47.31% |
| $15.0 (support) | round | -2.79% |
| $14.09 (support) | swing zone | -8.68% |
| $14.0 (support) | round | -9.27% |
| RSI (14) | 52.64 | MACD | -0.0128 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 15.8 | ATR (14) | 0.9 |
| 50-day average | $16.02 | 200-day average | $22.73 |
Next earnings: 2026-11-03. RARE earnings date, time and past reactions.
Report of 2026-11-05.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) fell 7% on November 5, 2026, to $15.96, after reporting a wider-than-expected quarterly loss and announcing asset sales. The stock is now testing the $16.00 round level, which has capped rallies for months, and the weekly trend remains down. With the daily trend aligned with the weekly downtrend and the stock lagging its sector badly, the balance of evidence leans negative for the next 2–6 weeks, though conviction is only medium.
The third-quarter report, filed with the SEC on November 3, 2026, showed revenue of $173 million, up 8% year-over-year, but the net loss widened to $118 million, or $1.16 per share, from $180 million a year earlier. The company also announced the sale of two assets, a move that adds cash but signals a narrower focus. The market's reaction was harsh: the stock dropped 7% in one day, and over five days it is down 4.9%, while the S&P 500 fell 4.2% and the healthcare sector ETF XLV rose 1.1%. That means the stock underperformed its sector by 6 percentage points in five days — the move is company-specific, not market or sector driven.
What was already priced in? The stock had rallied 10.4% over the past month, reaching a recent peak of $17.20 on October 28, before the earnings report. That rally ran into the $17.00 round resistance and the 50-day average at $16.24, and the drop has now pulled it back below both. The one-day drop of more than 5% has historically been followed by a higher price a month later 70.9% of the time, with a median gain of 5.4%, but that is a statistical tendency, not a reason to ignore the trend.
The real debate about RARE is whether the asset sales and cost cuts can offset the widening losses. The bull case, echoed by the analyst consensus of buy with a mean target of $26.35, is that the pipeline and existing products like CRYSVITA and DOJOLVI will drive growth. The bear case, which the price action supports, is that the company is burning cash and the stock is still 56% below its 52-week high. The analyst target range is wide — from $16.00 to $39.00 — and the stock is 39% below the mean target, suggesting either the street is too optimistic or the market is pricing in more dilution.
The long-term thesis is intact but weakened. The stock is below its 40-week average, and the weekly trend is down. The daily trend is also down, and the two are aligned, which is a bearish signal. The stock is above its 10-week average, but that is a short-term bounce within a longer decline. The 50-day average is $16.24, and the 200-day average is $22.77; the stock is 30% below the 200-day, and the 6-month return is -36%. The stock is in a downtrend, and the recent bounce has failed at resistance.
For the next 2–6 weeks, the balance of evidence leans negative. The daily trend runs with the weekly downtrend, and the stock is lagging XLV by 8.6% over 50 days, even though it is leading the S&P 500 by 2.2% over the same period — that leadership is against the trend and is not a sign of strength. The conviction is medium, with 2 of 4 points supporting the bearish stance. The strongest case against this reading is the historical bounce after a 5% drop, and the stock's 1-month gain of 10.4% shows buyers are willing to step in. But that bounce has already failed at $17.20, and the stock is back below the 50-day average. The trend is down, and the rallies are being sold.
The structure holds below $16.00, a round level where sellers have shown up on rallies. The stock closed at $15.96, just below it, and the 50-day average at $16.24 is overhead resistance. The trend would end only on a weekly close above $22.77, the 200-day average — a level that is 43% above the current price. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower.
The downside breakout level is a daily close below $15.00, a round number. From there, the first target is $14.09, a swing zone, which gives a reward-to-risk of 0.8 to 1 against a stop at $16.21 (set at $16.00 plus a quarter of the ATR). The second target is $12.88, the 52-week low, which gives 1.8 to 1. Neither reaches the 3-to-1 reward-to-risk that makes a breakout worth the risk. To get to 3-to-1, the stock would need to be closer to $16.50 or the target would need to be lower — but the math does not support it.
A weekly close above $22.77, the 200-day average, would flip the long-term trend to up. That is the level that would change the picture. The one non-price fact that would do it is a clear path to profitability, such as a major product approval or a partnership that brings in substantial cash — the next earnings report will be watched for any update on the asset sales and cash runway.
The next earnings date is November 3, 2026, and the one number that matters is the cash burn rate — whether the asset sales have extended the runway. Sector events, such as the PTC Therapeutics earnings on October 29, can move biotech sentiment, but RARE's own news dominates. Valuation: the stock trades at $15.96, 39% below the mean analyst target of $26.35, but the low target of $16.00 is right at the current price, so the street is split.
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