Price: $2.92
· 1 day: +3.91% · 5 days: +15.41% · 1 month: -21.51% · YTD: -67.66%
As of 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC.
52-week range: $2.49 – $15.7 (currently at 3% of the range).
TLRY is in a downtrend, momentum firm. $3 is the level overhead; $2.53 the first support below.
3 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.
| Trend | Downtrend · below 50-day & below 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 45.8 · neutral · MACD bullish |
| Trend strength | ADX 46.0 · strong trend |
| Location | -18.8% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -79% from high · +15% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 0.17 · ~5.8%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $3.0 (resistance) | round | 2.74% |
| $3.5 (resistance) | round | 19.86% |
| $3.59 (resistance) | sma 50 | 22.95% |
| $2.53 (support) | 52w low | -13.36% |
| $2.5 (support) | round | -14.38% |
| $2.0 (support) | round | -31.51% |
| RSI (14) | 45.8 | MACD | -0.2424 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 46.0 | ATR (14) | 0.17 |
| 50-day average | $3.59 | 200-day average | $5.31 |
Next earnings: 2027-01-07. TLRY earnings date, time and past reactions.
Report of 2026-11-07.
Tilray Brands (TLRY) closed at $2.92 on November 6, 2026, up 3.9% on the day and 15.4% over the last five sessions, but the bounce has not changed the underlying picture. The stock remains below its 50-day and 40-week averages, and the weekly trend is down. The balance of evidence over the next 2–6 weeks is negative, with high conviction, as the stock lags both the S&P 500 and the healthcare sector. The structure holds below $3.00, and a weekly close above $4.85 would be needed to end the downtrend.
The recent 15.4% five-day rally in TLRY comes after a sharp decline from the October 6, 2026 peak of $3.78, a drop of 22.8%. The stock's one-month return is -21.5%, and it is down 49.3% over six months. The bounce appears to be a technical rebound within a longer downtrend, not a change in fundamentals. The stock's 50-day average is $3.59, and the 200-day average is $5.31, both well above the current price, confirming the bearish alignment.
What was already priced in? The market has been selling TLRY for months, as evidenced by the 67.7% year-to-date decline. The recent rally may reflect short-term oversold conditions, with the RSI at 45.8, but it has not been enough to break above key resistance. The stock's relative weakness is stark: over the last 50 days, TLRY is down 15.4% versus the S&P 500 and 24.3% versus XLV, the healthcare sector ETF. In the last five days, TLRY gained 15.4% while SPY fell 2.7% and XLV was flat, suggesting the bounce is stock-specific, not market-driven.
The debate around TLRY centers on the cannabis sector's growth versus the company's execution. On one hand, Forbes reports that New York's cannabis sales have topped $4 billion, with 22.1% year-over-year growth, indicating strong industry demand. On the other hand, the sector faces headwinds, such as the ongoing 280E tax issue, as highlighted by Forbes, where a dispensary is fighting nearly $1 million in IRS assessments. TLRY's own fundamentals are weak, with a market cap of $431.5 million and a consensus price target of $5.72, which is 49% above the current price, but the low target of $4.00 suggests analysts are not uniformly optimistic.
The news flow has been mixed, with no direct TLRY-specific announcements. The recent headlines about cannabis dispensary openings and partnerships, such as Ascend Wellness and Trulieve, are sector-wide and do not directly impact TLRY. The stock's move appears to be driven by technical factors rather than news, as the five-day gain is not supported by any company-specific catalyst.
The long-term thesis is broken. TLRY is below its 40-week average, and the weekly trend is down. The stock is in a persistent downtrend, with the 52-week high of $131.00 a distant memory, and it is down 97.8% from that high. The 200-day average at $5.31 is far above the price, and the stock has not been above the 10-week average recently. The thesis of a cannabis growth story has not translated into shareholder value, as the stock continues to make lower lows.
For the next 2–6 weeks, the balance of evidence leans negative. The daily trend runs with the weekly downtrend, and the stock is lagging both the S&P 500 and XLV over 50 days. The conviction is high, with 3 of 4 points supporting a bearish stance. The strongest case against this reading is the recent 15.4% five-day bounce, which could signal a short-term bottom. However, the bounce has not broken above the $3.00 resistance, and the RSI at 45.8 is not oversold enough to suggest a sustained reversal. The volume is 6.9% below the 20-day average, indicating that the rally lacks conviction.
The structure holds below $3.00, a round number where sellers have shown up on rallies. The weekly trend is down, and any bounce is likely to be sold into. The level where the trend would end is $4.85, a swing zone, and a weekly close above that would signal a change in the long-term downtrend. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower.
The breakout level is a daily close below $2.53, the 52-week low. From there, the math gives targets of $2.50 and $2.00, with a stop at $3.04 (based on $3.00 plus a quarter of ATR). The reward-to-risk from $2.53 to $2.50 is 0.1, and to $2.00 is 1.0, which does not meet the 3-to-1 threshold. To achieve a 3-to-1 reward-to-risk, the target would need to be lower, or the stop tighter, but the current structure does not offer that. The map is clear: a break below $2.53 opens the door to lower prices, but the risk-reward is not attractive for a downside breakout.
A weekly close above $4.85 would change the picture, as it would break the swing zone and signal a potential trend reversal. This is a high bar, given the stock is 40% below that level. The only non-price fact that could do it is a major positive catalyst, such as a surprise earnings beat or a regulatory change that fundamentally improves TLRY's outlook. Until then, the downtrend remains intact.
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