Price: $358.22
· 1 day: +4.23% · 5 days: -10.40% · 1 month: -5.19% · YTD: -20.35%
As of 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC.
52-week range: $297.38 – $498.83 (currently at 30% of the range).
TSLA is in a downtrend, momentum soft. $366.37 is the level overhead; $350 the first support below.
5 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.
| Trend | Downtrend · below 50-day & below 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 46.81 · bullish · MACD bearish |
| Trend strength | ADX 16.8 · weak or range |
| Location | -3.7% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -27% from high · +20% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 17.99 · ~5.0%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $366.37 (resistance) | swing zone | 2.28% |
| $372.14 (resistance) | sma 50 | 3.89% |
| $375.0 (resistance) | round | 4.68% |
| $350.0 (support) | round | -2.29% |
| $347.6 (support) | swing zone | -2.96% |
| $325.0 (support) | round | -9.27% |
| RSI (14) | 46.81 | MACD | 1.4643 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 16.8 | ATR (14) | 17.99 |
| 50-day average | $372.14 | 200-day average | $383.87 |
Next earnings: 2027-01-27. TSLA earnings date, time and past reactions.
Report of 2026-11-05.
Tesla’s shares fell to $343.5 on November 5, a 10.8% one‑day drop that left the price well below the 40‑week average and the swing‑zone resistance at $347.6. The daily trend now mirrors a weekly downtrend, and the stock is lagging both the S&P 500 and the consumer‑discretionary index XLY over the past 50 days. The balance of evidence points to a bearish short‑term outlook with high conviction, and the math for a downside breakout does not meet a 3‑to‑1 reward‑to‑risk ratio.
The market’s reaction began with a cascade of news on November 5. A SPAC‑driven merger launched Agility Robotics, a direct competitor to Tesla’s Optimus humanoid platform, into public markets Investor’s Business Daily. While the merger itself does not explain the immediate price move, it adds a competitive pressure point to Tesla’s AI‑driven ambitions.
At the same time, several legal and political headlines heightened uncertainty for high‑profile tech founders. A federal judge’s ruling on Elon Musk’s DOGE‑related data‑access scheme Forbes and a collective objection by Tesla and other tech giants to a blockchain‑based tokenization plan Yahoo! Finance underscore a broader regulatory headwind.
Even with these headlines, the stock’s 5‑day performance tells a clearer story. TSLA fell 14.8% versus a 3.8% decline in the S&P 500 and a modest 1.1% rise in XLY, meaning the stock underperformed the market by roughly –16% relative to its sector (stock_minus_sector_5d_pct). Volume was 11.8% above its 20‑day average, indicating strong participation in the sell‑off.
Analyst consensus remains a “buy” with a mean target of $413, but that target is 16.9% above the current price, reflecting a valuation gap that has widened as the price slid from the recent peak of $407.5 on October 27 (recent_peak) to today’s level. The spread between the low ($128) and high ($600) targets also shows a wide range of expectations, but the median view is still far above the market price.
In the broader debate, a Seeking Alpha piece argues that a merger premium with SpaceX is inflating TSLA’s valuation, warning that a failed deal could trigger further downside Seeking Alpha. The article’s bearish stance aligns with the current price action, while the consensus rating suggests some analysts still see upside potential, creating a divergence between market sentiment and analyst expectations.
On the long‑term view, the price remains below its 40‑week moving average and the 52‑week low at $298.3 is still 15% away, indicating the downtrend is intact. The swing‑zone at $347.6 continues to act as a barrier where sellers have historically stepped in, and the weekly trend is still negative.
For the next two to six weeks, the balance of evidence leans negative with high conviction. The assessment cites three of four conviction points: the daily trend follows the weekly downtrend, the stock lags the S&P 500 by 4.4% over 50 days, and it lags XLY by 11% over the same period. The breakout math requires a daily close below the round level of $325 to confirm a downside move, with a stop at $351.96 based on the swing‑zone plus a quarter of the 14‑day ATR. The only target is the 52‑week low at $298.3, offering a 1‑to‑1 reward‑to‑risk ratio, which falls short of the 3‑to‑1 threshold.
The strongest case against a bearish reading would be a rapid rally that closes above $366.4, the next swing‑zone resistance, which would suggest the weekly trend could be ending. However, such a move would require a swing of more than 6% in a single day, a scenario not supported by current volatility (ATR $17.45) or recent price action.
The structure holds the price below the $347.6 swing‑zone, a level where sellers have repeatedly emerged on rallies. The weekly trend would be considered ended if the price closes above $366.37, also a swing‑zone resistance that sits just above the 50‑day SMA at $372.1.
The breakout level for a downside move is a daily close below the round $325. If that level is breached, the math projects a target at the 52‑week low of $298.3, with a stop at $351.96. The reward‑to‑risk is 1.0, and because the trade does not meet a 3‑to‑1 ratio, the price would need to fall to roughly $285 to achieve that threshold.
A weekly close above $366.37 would invalidate the current bearish outlook, signaling that the weekly trend may be reversing. A non‑price catalyst such as a confirmed partnership that materially accelerates Optimus production, or a regulatory win that eases political pressure on Musk’s enterprises, could also shift the narrative.
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