Price: $375.44
· 1 day: +6.33% · 5 days: -7.56% · 1 month: -20.49% · YTD: +23.54%
As of 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC.
52-week range: $266.82 – $487.47 (currently at 49% of the range).
TSM is in a downtrend, momentum soft. $384.41 is the level overhead; $375 the first support below.
5 of 6 technical checks lean bearish.
| Trend | Downtrend · below 50-day & below 200-day |
|---|---|
| Momentum | RSI 37.52 · neutral · MACD bearish |
| Trend strength | ADX 28.7 · strong trend |
| Location | -13.0% vs 50-day MA |
| 52-week range | -23% from high · +36% from low |
| Volatility | ATR 17.49 · ~4.7%/day |
| Level | Type | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| $384.41 (resistance) | swing zone | 2.39% |
| $400.0 (resistance) | round | 6.54% |
| $406.4 (resistance) | swing zone | 8.25% |
| $375.0 (support) | round | -0.12% |
| $350.0 (support) | round | -6.78% |
| $275.06 (support) | 52w low | -26.74% |
| RSI (14) | 37.52 | MACD | -15.4793 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADX (14) | 28.7 | ATR (14) | 17.49 |
| 50-day average | $431.64 | 200-day average | $401.48 |
Next earnings: 2027-01-14. TSM earnings date, time and past reactions.
Report of 2026-11-05.
TSM closed at $357.92 on November 5, a 9.6% drop that pushed the price well below the round $350 level and deep into a down‑trend that has been in place since the October peak of $485.8. The balance of evidence points to a bearish outlook for the next two to six weeks, with medium conviction that the downside breakout math is unfavorable and the reward‑to‑risk ratio does not meet a 3‑to‑1 threshold.
The sell‑off was triggered by a sharp move in the broader semiconductor sector, as the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 8.3% despite data showing September chip sales up 146.8% year‑over‑year. PR Newswire reported the sector‑wide weakness, which spilled over to TSM even though its own revenue of $46.72 billion was strong. The market reaction was amplified by concerns over tighter data‑center regulations in the United States, a theme highlighted by Morningstar, and by a labor dispute that paused Micron’s Taiwan plant, adding uncertainty to the supply chain.
TSM’s 5‑day decline of –17.1% far outpaced the sector’s –73.8% fall and the S&P 500’s –3.8%, indicating that the stock moved more aggressively than the sector but still lagged the broader market over a 50‑day horizon (–14.4% vs SPY). The daily trend follows the weekly downtrend, and the price is now below both the 50‑day SMA ($432.78) and the 200‑day SMA ($401.26), confirming that the long‑term trend is down as the price sits under its 40‑week average.
Analysts remain overwhelmingly positive, with a consensus of strong‑buy and a mean target of $586.7, implying a 39% discount to the current price. That optimism is at odds with the price action and the technical picture, suggesting that the upside potential is already priced out of the market and that the consensus may be overly optimistic given the current structural weakness.
Debate around TSM is split. A bullish piece from NASDAQ lists TSM among four AI‑infrastructure stocks to buy, citing expected 2027 growth. Conversely, Financial Times notes that Taiwanese memory‑chip makers are seeing share‑price halving despite record earnings, underscoring sector‑wide volatility. Both sides acknowledge the strong fundamentals but differ on how much of the recent sell‑off is already reflected in price.
The long‑term thesis that TSM benefits from its dominant foundry position remains intact, but the price is now below its 40‑week average and the weekly trend is down, weakening the bullish case. The stock is in a pull‑back phase of a broader downtrend, and the recent price action has eroded the upside bias that previously supported a bullish stance.
For the next two to six weeks the balance of evidence leans negative. The assessment calls for a bearish stance with medium conviction, based on two of four conviction points: the daily trend aligns with the weekly downtrend and the stock is lagging the S&P 500 over 50 days (–14.4%). The third point – a strong outperformance versus SOXX (+165.1%) – is contrary to the trend and therefore does not reinforce the bearish view, limiting conviction to medium. The breakout math points to a downside target at $275.06, a reward‑to‑risk of 2.6, and the lack of a 3‑to‑1 ratio keeps conviction from being high.
The strongest case against this reading is the sector’s underlying demand surge, as September chip sales rose 146.8% YoY, and the consensus price target remains far above the current level. However, those factors are already baked into the price and do not offset the technical downside risk, which is why conviction does not rise to high.
The structure holds the price above the round $375 level; sellers have stepped in on rallies at that point, and the weekly trend remains down. The trend would be considered ended if the price were to close above the swing‑zone level of $406.4 on a weekly basis, which would signal a reversal of the downtrend.
The breakout level for a downside move is a daily close below the round $350 level. The stop is set at $379.12, derived from the round $375 base plus a quarter of the 14‑day ATR ($16.47). The primary target is $275.06, the 52‑week low, giving a reward‑to‑risk of 2.6. Because the math does not achieve a 3‑to‑1 ratio, a price move to roughly $240 would be needed for the risk‑reward to improve to that threshold.
A weekly close above the swing‑zone level of $406.4 would alter the picture, indicating that the downtrend has been broken. A non‑price catalyst such as a materially better‑than‑expected earnings surprise on January 14, 2027, could also shift the balance of evidence.
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